Personal car or shared car? Predicting potential modal shifts from multinomial logit models and bootstrap confidence intervals

Type de publication:

Journal Article

Source:

International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, Volume 15, Number 2, p.149-170 (2015)

URL:

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84927126101&doi=10.1504%2fIJATM.2015.068549&partnerID=40&md5=d3569d08f7acd7c76c2f1ea6bd666c88

Résumé:

Daily household mobility in France is characterised by the supremacy of the automobile. The main objective of this paper is to explain the modal choice of French households for their daily trips and to predict potential shifts from personal car to shared car. A multinomial logit model is estimated and reveals the particular importance of motorisation on modal choices. A conditional logit model is also estimated and shows no particular importance of the costs in the shared car deployment. Moreover, the increase in distances between 2010 and 2020 makes motorised modes more necessary. Simulations show that personal car should remain the main mode of transportation by 2020 except if households have no car. In that case, public transport would become the main transport mode and the shift to shared car would be at a maximum. Thus, personal car and public transport should remain the main modes of transportation by 2020. Copyright © 2015 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

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